James Miller

 

Monday, January 19, 2004

 

Predicting League Positions

Are you a betting man?

Something to tickle your fancy if you are!

I analyse databases and have always felt that the odds for league positions don’t reflect who a team has to play and where!

So I wrote a program to do the analysis, so that you can make your own predictions and have an appropriate bet!

I started by doing the analysis for the Premiership. Arsenal appear to win it easily, although when I made my predictions for the rest of the season, I was counting without Saha and any other new signings.

But the interesting thing is that Charlton come fourth. They appear to have an easy run in and this helps enormously. I took the 6-1 on offer at Betfair for Charlton to be top, without Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United!

Now as one of the 22,000 possible heart attack victims at Ipswich on Saturday, I did the analysis for the First Division.

So I’m biased, but even if I reckoned that Ipswich will only get one point from the two away games at Norwich and Sheffield, they still ended in the first two! It’s just that we have the more easy games!

I know that doesn’t guarantee anything, as this team are capable of anything! Let’s hope they got rid of their defensive mistakes on Saturday!


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